Truest Looks for the Bets Perfect
This method is much more interesting and robust than simply monitoring the hit rate. As we will discuss, the hit rate can be easily manipulated and report apparently excellent results and yet lose money.
We will see during the article how to detect these traps , and choose forecasters with guarantees of making money. At least, in its past and published operations.
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Investment, Profit and Yield
The Yield relates us Investment and Benefits of our bets
With the yield we can:
- know how good bettors we are
- follow the evolution of our progress
- identify good and bad streaks, and
- compare the results of other tipsters with full guarantees
What is the Yield and how to calculate it
The yield is the relation between the profit that we have obtained in a set of operations and the money that we have wagered. Usually calculated as a percentage:
Yield% = 100 x Profit / Total Money Invested
The yield of a single operation can be calculated. However, it is usual to group it by periods to filter the variability that the individual operations contain. The most serious bettors usually evaluate their monthly, annual yield, and the accumulated since the activity began.
Interpretation and references
A good yield for a recreational bettor can be valued at 4-5%. Although it may seem little, in reality it is a lot: with these returns you will double your money every 20 operations. If you are able to consistently exceed that number year after year, you can be in luck.
Normally, the yield usually has enough variability, some months with generous gains and others with losses. The important thing is to look at the trend and calculate moving averages from 5 to 10 times the average odds we bet on.
Yield: calculation and trends
Evaluating the Yield makes it easier for us to find trends in our strategies and correct our methods of forecasting and calculating stakes.
For example, if we bet with an average odds of 2, it would be advisable to average between 10 and 20 operations to filter the noise. If we bet with average odds of 5, we will have to average between 25 and 50.
Using more operations will give us a less noisy, more constant value, with less variability. And for the most statistical purists, it is better to use the median of the quotas instead of the average to decide the period of the calculation window.